Post-thoughts on the May 2015 election

The election results were all the worse for being a complete surprise. I should have learned not to trust the polls. Their technology is superb, but they cannot always do what is expected of them.

I have to say that I had such low expectations of Millibubble that I feel he would have lasted one term at most. I almost prefer his brother - virtually indistiguishable policies, but a more impressive leader. If David had won, he would now be in Downing Street - but he is probably doing less damage where he is.

I was able once again to vote left of Labour (Green), safe in the certainty that I would get a LibDem local councillor and a Tory MP - both actually quite good examples of their type (Nigel Ayres and Julian Sturdy). Aside from independence, I might have voted SNP. Sturgeon is surprisingly impressive. As Henry McLeish put it, the SNP are not just a political party, they are a CAUSE. This is what Labour should be. Too bad if the cause disrupts the empire, while the empire disrupts Europe! I wonder shall we ever see a Labour Government again? Unemployment researchers will not be unemployed!

"The Scottish problem"

How can we use the energy, engagement and enthusiasm that the SNP has generated? It is now a CAUSE, not merely a political party.

The "Scottish problem" goes back to 'Gorbals Mick' and the corrupt and corrupting influence of the Labour Party in Scotland and elsewhere.

In praise of universality

Universal benefits are almost universally derided as inefficient ways of spending taxes. "Targeting" is now the name of the game, so for example Child Benefit is removed from those earnng more than £50,000 (in a very complicated way which nobody understands, saves little money, has unexpected consequences and introduces further peculiar injustices).

Sometimes targeting is necessary, but it should always be fair, easy to administer, genuinely cost-saving, and should not introduce hidden perverse incentives.

However, universality is an important cement that underlines how we are geniunely "all in it together". It is an important part of "community", the 'Big Society', or whatever you want to call it.

Two of the most important and most expensive benefits are already universal or nearly so - I mean the free-at-point-of-delivery NHS, and Old Age Pensions. Seniors prefer not to see pensions as a benefit "because we have paid for it". However, actually that is not true: today's pensions are paid using today's taxes - just as we paid for our parents' pensions when we were working. Most seniors are NOT 'workers', whether they like it or not.

Similarly, NHS service does not have to be regarded as a universal benefit - but it is. Moreover the free-at-point-of-delivery  principle is universally popular, as is free education. Exceptions have been introduced (dental care, prescriptions, post-compulsory learning etc., etc.), but the principle remains, and so does its popularity.

I want to argue that universality is an important principle, because it binds in people who might otherwise regard themselves as above and beyond 'state benefits'. It enhances community. For precisely this reason I advocate a "Universal Citizen's Income" (UCI), which would provide EVERYBODY with a small fixed income - under £100 per week. Beyond this basic amount, ALL income would be taxed. (Extra amounts would be available for specially needy groups, such as disabled people, single parents and the elderly.)

Other universal benefits have less financial impact, but are equally important in theire social effect of binding people together. I am thinking of items that apply only to seniors - the free bus pass, the winter fuel payment, and the free TV licence. The first and last have very little economic cost, because no extra services have to be provided for these seniors: the bus would run anyway, and so would the TV. The winter fuel payment is a different matter if it actually leads to an increase in fuel consumption, but is best seen as a universal income benefit, which could be part of UCI if that regime were introduced.)

Footnote (1): "We are all welfare scroungers" - and introducing universality reduces the fissures in society. Also, many benefits benefit the better-off. Housing Benefit goes to landlords. It also benefits employers who thereby do not need to pay their workforce so much, because they know that the state will subsidise incomes. Similarly, bus passes subsidise bus companies - it is they who receive more resources fomr the state.

Footnote (2): A slightly separate point is whether universal benefits should be completely free, or whether token payments should be made whenever a service is used. Such payments might reducing over-consumption. But by how much? So a small payment of £1 per trip might reduce unnecessary bus-use during rush hours and other congestion periods.

Before deciding wheth it is worth introducing token charges, one must consider the following social costs:

• administrative costs
• extra time spent collecting the fees.

We should also estimate the relevant price-elasticities i.e. by how much would bus 'consumption' reducewith a £1 charge? a £2 charge? etc.. Also, would the charge impose social costs by inhibiting trips which actually have a social gain? For example, would I go to see my Granny less if I had to pay my own bus fare, and would Granny's care suffer as a result? Similar considerations apply in much larger ways to the unlikely-to-be-implemented proposal that A&E and GP-services users ahould also pay a nominal fee. 

Geology + Geometry in Venice

The Geology and Geometry of Venetian Floors

I am loving *this amazing book full of beautiful pictures and interesting quotes. (The author Tudy Sammartini has also written on the clocktowers and gardens of Venice, and has some videos here. She seems to be a long-term resident of Venice.)

Good quotes

p.15: "Let us pretend we have the task assigned to the architect monk who designed St Mark's Basilica. As he drew up the plan for the floor, he genuinely believed he was bringing heaven and earth together. That was why he used shapes not only from traditional heritage but also ones that evoke and give voice to figures from Christian mysticism. In the plan of St. Mark's, the four arms of a Greek cross intersect in a square in which a cicle represents a projection of the dome of the Ascension. This point is the fulcrum of the entire edifice. The correspondence between summit and base represents the meeting of heaven and earth. In mystical symbolism, the circle is the development of the centre, representing its dynamic aspect, and the square is its static manifestation. Another emblematic motif is the dodecagon ...."

Parts of the text - emphasised above - include the magical flavour of continental florescence. This may suggest that the original was written in Italian, then translated in such an excellent way that is almost as beautiful and evocative in English as it would have been in the orginal.

The dodecagon, we learn (ibid.) was held by Euclid and Plato to be "the perfect shape". It "represented 'divinity' in mathematics" for Luca Pacioli, while for Christians, the twelveness symbolizes either the twelve tribes of Israel or the twelve prophecies of Revelation (or both).  Moreover: "... the most surprising aspect is the harmonious, unified conception of all the different parts of the church. In particular there is a perfect iconographic correspondence between the mosaics in the vaults and the geometric patterns of the floor".

However, the book does not always join up.  Page 20 shows an image of cicular-geometric patterns from El Djem (Thysdrus) in Tunisia. I searched in vain for references to this in the text, eventually finding a brief reference on p.15. Why were these two not cross-referenced? It would have been so easy. (Incidentally, the caption of teh image on p.20 contains one of the few editorial errors I have noticed - the name "George Tradier" should presumably be "George Pradier". Others call him "Fradier".)

George Fradier. 1982. Mosaïques Romaines de Tunisie.

The images are magnificent ....

I cannot believe that the great Michele Emmer played no role in this project. For where are floors if not in Flatland?!

* Sammartini, Tudy. 2000. Decorative Floors of Venice. London: Merrell.

Redirects

• For election polls: tinyurl.com/2015polls

The post-poll poll portal

Why were the polls so wrong?

Well actually the exit poll was surprisingly accurate, especially when it was updated following the first few declaraions. (But its methodology is unclear: how were the updatings done?)

But the pre-election polls were near-unanimously wrong. They all predicted a Lab-Con neck-and-neck, except Nigel Marriott below - he seems to have been the best. Eat your heart out, Nate Silver!

Here are some reasons why the pre-polls were so wrong:

1. They asked different questions (e.g. "How WILL you vote?", not "How DID you vote?")
2. Labour voters were less likely to vote. (Agreed: young and poor tend not to vote, especially in bad weather - which is why Labour knockers-up always used to pray for good weather:  Do they still?)
3. Voters changed their mind at the last moment
4. Tories are shy or ashamed at admitting their intention.

Post-polls might clarify some of the above e.g. by contrasting  "How WILL you vote?" with "How DID you vote?" and even "DID you vote?" for different subgroups.

Here are some useful links I have found:

• Nigel Marriott's excellent video on election polls. #BBC should learn from this and make him their television guru! Nigel's May 5th forecast is not perfect, but seems better than the others. It may even be better than the exit polls if you ignore his overestimation of LibDem and UKIP and underestimation of SNP - much of this can be ascribed to overestimating the inertia effect (by which incumbent parties are given higher %s than non-incumbents).

• This page describes an exit poll method from 2010. It may underlie the 2015 method used by John Curtice, the BBC guru.
• Nate Silver blames bad polling on weak British election forecasting http://politi.co/1PujUdv 
• How 'shy Tories' confounded the polls (Grauniad) http: //trib.al/InQVS9E 

Here are some statistical bits-and-pieces (not all independently verified):

Loss & Gain Matrix 2010-2015  (from Wikipedia 'Talk' page: 2015may8:1800BST

• Wikipedia infobox 2015may8:1800BST

• UKIP, LibDems & Greens collectively won one seat per 740k votes, Labour one seat per 40k votes and Tories one seat per 34k votes (Sources here and here. For nerds only, figures are 7.4 million votes/10 seats,  9.3 million votes/ 232 seats, and  Tory figure is one seat per 34k votes where 34k=40k*0.86 where 0.86=(35/48)/(30.7/36.6)

From the above Wikipedia infobox, the votes-per-seat ratios are as follows:

Popular vote / Seats won = Votes per seat

Conservative: 11,334,920 / 330 = 34k

Labour: 9,344,328 / 232 = 40k

SNP: 1,454,436 / 56 = 26k

LibDem: 2,415,888 / 8 = 302k

DUP: 184,260 / 8 = 23k

Human Rights and the Middle East

Sultan Barakat's informed and subtle analysis of the situation in Yemen underlines that is not just Israel who can be accused of degrading civilian infrastructure and justifying it with allegations that fighters are "sheltering in civilian areas” or “taking civilians as human shields.”

A York Diary

The purpose of this blog is to develop a timeline of important events in and relating to York. It is currently small and serendipitous. is there a volunteer out there who would offer to develop it on a more systematic basis?

1070: Thomas, canon of Bayeux, appointed Archbishop of York by Bill the Conq.

1245: Clifford's Tower built.

1684: William Nevison, who performed the famous ride from London to York allegedly done by Dick Turpin, hanged in York.

1705: Debtor's Prison (now part of Castle Museum) built from the ruins of St Mary's Abbey.
1727: Daniel Defoe describes York Debtor's Prison as "The most stateley and complkete prison of any in the whole Kingdom, if not in Europe - kept as neat within-side as it is noble without".

1739: Dick Turpin hanged for horse stealing on York Knavesmire. (William Nevison, who performed the famous ride from London to York allegedly done by Dick Turpin, was himself hanged in York in 1684).

1777: Assize Courts built (now next to Castle Museum)

1780: Women's Prison built (now part of Castle Museum)


1782 etc: See this correspondence between York correspondents and William Cullen, David Hume's physician and friend in York. Cullen's correspondents include:

• [ID:2235, 16 June 1782] [ID:2161, 23 February 1782] Dr Alexander Hunter & Mr William Huddleton Williamson (Patient); [ID:2148, 8 February 1782], [ID:1974] York Feb. February 8. 1782 ,  "Medicinal Baths at York"  [ID:269] Dr Alexander Hunter and Mr William Huddleton Williamson (Patient) / 14 February 1782 
• [ID:1344] Mr Hugh Marsden & Mr G (Patient) / 11 January 1777 / "... and & you shoud be in ye the County of York Pray a Line ..."
• [ID:3910]  Dr Robert Dolman (of York and Pocklington) / Regarding: Dr Robert Dolman (of York and Pocklington) (Patient) / 26 August 1776   "... A gouty disposition at the bottom of your complaints ..."
• [ID:2321] Mr William Clapham & Mr Holt (Patient) / 20 September 1783 /  "... the vicinity of York . ... under the direction of the York Physicians) ... by an Electuary he brought from York with him. -- ... which had been pursued at York ..."               
• [ID:1914, 11 September 1780] [ID:1975, 30 January 1781] Mrs Jane Webster   "at Mrs Goddards St Saviour gate York"
• [ID:1272] From: Mr Thomas Christie Regarding: Mr Thomas Christie (Patient), Anonymous (Patient) / 4 May 1776 /  "...  the late Dr. I. Daltrie of York . In the year 1771 I went to Harrow ..."
• [ID:1277] From: Mr Fowler & A B (Patient) / 22 May 1776 "... Advice of several Physicians, both in York & London. Opiates , Anodyne ..."
• [ID:2223] See here: From: Mr Richard Wharton / To: Mr Thomas Wharton / Regarding: Mrs Wharton (Patient) / 31? May 1782 / "York May the last D r. Dear S r. Sir How very obliging & satisfactory your ..."
• [ID:1978] Miss Hodgson (Hodgeson) (Patient) / 11? February 1781 / "... the Leg & Thigh went to York ..."
• [ID:813]  Mr William Cuningham (Cunningham(e)) (Patient) / 14 June 1771 / ".. When at York I consulted Doctor Dealtry ..."

Wharton text here follows:

York May the last

Dear Sir

How very obliging & satisfactory your last kind Letter! I shall be more than ever an Advocate for Dr. Cullen, his Directions are so plain & a (he) seems so properly to consider the Case laid before him. I have the highest Opinion of his Judgement & if Faith in the Physician will forward the Cure I have the greatest; 

Mrs. Wharton does not return Home till Monday Sennight I therefore immediately [Page 2] dispatch'd your kind Pacquet  to her requesting the next Morning She wou'd take what Dr. Cullen order'd & I have no doubt that She will oblige me & return greatly better to me -- 

The Dr. seems to think the Case not particularly enough stated 2 or 3 Things I will desire you to mention to him - Our House except the Passage was remarkably dry I have this day given orders to have it [clean'd?] & [alle?] laid before Mrs. Wharton's Return, I fear She may have [Page 3] receiv'd Hurt from that as well as from a very bad custom She has too long pursued of dressing frequently in a room with both Windows & Door open (a thorough Air) which She did last October; The Dr orders her Chocolate for Breakfast but will he not allow her Tea in the Evening? She is fond of it & drinks only 2 moderate Cups - 

We breakfast between 8 & 9 dine a little after 3 drink Tea at 7, as none of us taste any Supper, She [Page 4] has accustom'd herself in general to only one Glass of Port Wine after Dinner (good small Beer in Cask to it) & some at night wou'd he therefore after he knows that order her 2 or 3 at Dinner & any at Night? if he wou'd She certainly will comply. 

I forgot to mention from 6 year old She us'd to take Scotch Snuff till within these 2 Years & in that Time She haiisi only taken a Pinch occasionally would he have her leave it off entirely or take a Pinch or 2 in a Day? Does he think it too long to fast from 9 'till 3 & if he does not approve [Page 5] of Tea at 7 what wou'd he order her? She has never been accustom'd to keep herself warm, frequently goes into the Garden in Winter without a Hatt or clok, does he recommend woolen Stockens & thick Shoes neither of which She has ever accustom'd herself to but both of which I am a great Advocate for? The Dr. I dare saie say approves of early Hours going to Bed does he recommend her to rise early? -- I can think of no more Questions - too many to trouble you with but I wou'd wish Mrs. W-- in every Thing to follow what Dr. C - directs - I hope Lady {illeg} gains Strength daily & that the young one & the rest of the Family are well - We shall have no Wall Frost but the Apples & Pears look well have you any Blossom on your young Trees & hope this Year to be able to send You a few of your favourite Apples as have Vessels sometimes going to into Leath if I have an Oppor¬ tunity (for this seems to be a Letter of Questions) then shall I direct my best Wishes attend you & yours & believe me Dear Sir your most oblig'd servant.

Rick Wharton.

Tho's Wharton Esqr

One of the Honourable the Commissioner of his Majesty's Excise
Lauriston, Edinburgh
North: Britain

Mrs Wharton 
May 1782 
V. XIV p. 85

William Smith (1769-1839), 
by Hugues Fourau (1803-1873)

1794 summer: The canal surveyor and geologist William Smith (1769-1839) visits York and Yorkshire for the first time, on his "tour of enquiry and observation regarding the construction, management, and trade of other navigations in England and Wales". This confirms for him that North East England had the same sequence of geological strata that he had observed in the South West. "From the top of York Minster", he wrote, "I could see that the Wolds contained chalk by their contour"; he also "recognised in the Hambleton Hills the features of the Cotteswold (Cotswold) Hills", and "saw near Thirsk the red marl in the road (as near Warwick") (Henry 2015:71-71). Thus began modern geological mapping!



1812: Sixteen Luddites from West Yorkshire hanged in York.

1820: Thomas Smith hanged in York Prison for sheep-stealing. In its wall he wrote:

"This prison is a house of care

A grave for man alive

A touchstone to try a friend

No place for a man to thrive."

1829: "F. Otter aged 37 from Lincoln, transported 14 years, 1829" (carved on wll of York Prison)

1829: Jonathan Martin detained in York Prison for his almost succesful attempt to burn down York Minster.

1830: "G, Massey, Thorner, 7 years 1830" (carved on wll of York Prison)


1896: Frank Green of Nunthorpe Hall purchases Treasurer's House, where he lives from 1898 to 1930. His father, Sir Edward Green, also lived there from 1901 till his death in 1923.

1919jun13, Yorkshire Herald: letter from Seebohm Rowntree suggests that York's war memorial should have "direct benefits whether to the soldiers and sailors themselves or their dependents" (Nott 2015:82).

1920aug: Edwin Lutyens (1869-1944) arrives in York to discuss possible sites for York's war memorial. These included the cholera burial ground near the station, Exhibition Square near the art gallery, Duncombe Place by the Boer War Memorial, and "the area beside the city walls just south of the River Ouse" (Nott 2015:83).

1921nov25:  Public meeting in York: Dr Evelyn criticises the proposed location of Lutyens' war memorial and its "effect on the line of site from the top of the hill leading towards the station" (Nott 2015:84).

1923may:  A further public protest meeting led by Dr William Evelyn regarding Lutyens' proposed war memorial: this was "a gross insult to the intelligence of the people of York". The meeting was 'at an impasse' until Dean Foxley Norris announced that the committee would reconsider their decision (Nott 2015:84-85).

1925jun25 The Mercury (Hobart, Tasmania): 

"FIVE  SISTERS'  WINDOW  IN  YORK  MINSTER.

EMPIRE-WIDE  MEMORIAL  SERVICES.

HONOURING  WOMEN  WHO  DIED  IN WAR  WORK.

The unveiling ceremony of the Women's

National Memorial to the women of the

Empire in York Minster by Her Royal

Highness the Duchess of York is to take

place on Wednesday next, and memorial

services are to be held in the Dominions

on the same date."

See Goebel (2007:176) and Trove.nla.gov.au

1925jun: Lutyens' civic war memorial is unveiled ("low-key..., mid-week ..., tagged on to the end of the more prestigious dedication of the Five Sisters Window in York Minster by the Duchess of York" - she subsequently became Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother) (Nott 2015:85; historyofyork.org.uk).

1953sep29: The Bootham hoard: Mr Scaife, a trench-digger working on the drains of a new kitchen block at Bootham School, finds 908 silver coins wrapped in cloth and placed in a bronze container. (Dolley and Stuart 1954-1955; Savage and Woods 2015; Yorkshire Evening Post 1953oct30; yorkmuseumstrust)







References

Hallifax, S.(2004) “A Worthy Memorial: Communal Ownership and the Role of Elites in the Creation of Civic War Memorials to the Great War in Colchester and York.” M.A. dissertation, York: University of York.

Henry, John (2015) “William Smith, Father of English Geology: His Maps.” Yorkshire Philosophical Society Annual Report for the Year 2014, 70–77.

Nott, Dorothy (2015) “A Reflection on Lutyens’ Civic War Memorial in York.” Yorkshire Philosophical Society Annual Report for the Year 2014, 81–86.

Savage, Carl E.and Andrew R. Woods (2015) “The Bootham School Coin Hoard.” Yorkshire Philosophical Society Annual Report  for the Year 2014, 66–70.

#ElectionChaos! What if Queen, Cameron, Millibubble all blown up and away?

#ElectionChaos! 

What if Queen, Cameron, and Millibubble are all blown away in some mega gas-explosion? 

Fine pickings for lawyers!


https://twitter.com/search?q=millibubble&src=typd

MITN = MathsInTheNews "Revolutions in pop music"

Today's "Today" programme at 07:20 featured an interview with Matthias Mauch, of Queen Mary University of London, who argued that pop music has experienced three revolutions in 50 years.

The original paper describes the authors' work as  "a quantitative picture of the evolution of popular music in the USA over the course of 50 years". Mauch's team examined more than 17 000 songs from the US Billboard Hot 100 and found three music revolutions - in 1964, 1983 and 1991.

The characteristics they measured included  harmony, chord changes and timbre, and how these characteristics changed over time.

In the early 1960s, they found, dominant seventh chords, typical of jazz and blues started to die out as the new British bands - from the Beatles to the Rolling Stones - came in with a new rocky sound.

The second revolution, in 1983, was driven by new technology including synthesisers, samplers and drum machines.

Then in 1991, the third revolution came along with rap and hip-hop. "This revolution is the biggest", explained Dr Mauch. "It is so prominent in our analysis, because we looked at harmony - and rap and hip-hop don't use a lot of harmony. The emphasis is on speech sounds and rhythm. This was a real revolution: suddenly it was possible that you had a pop song without harmony."

See here for the original paper, and here for the pdf.  Mauch's team gathered  30-second-long segments from 17 094 songs and measured a range of quantitative audio features, including 12 relating to tone and 14 relating to timbre.

These 26 features were then combined by experts into 'words', and then into 16 ‘topics’ using latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), and beyond that into 13 'styles', using k-means clustering on principal components of topic frequencies.

yourcafe - providing a community meal and addressing food waste and food poverty in York

Am just back from lunch at yourcafe (or, as I would prefer to call it, YourCafe - or even YorCafe). This is a "new and exciting venture seeking to address issues of food waste and food poverty in York by providing a community meal".

I found a delicious meal provided by delectable people, many of them associated with Heworth Christ Church, Stockton Lane

yourcafe is at Tang Hall Community Centre (5th Avenue, York YO31 0UG), every Wednesday between now and 3rd June 2015, from 12:30 - 2pm. To be more precise, that is May 13th, 20th, 27th and June 3rd.